Separating Receivable Uncertainty from Cash Obligations in MSME Liquidity Planning

Abstract

Enterprises can report profits and receivables while lacking the cash needed to meet dated obligations. This conceptual article develops a planning framework that distinguishes an accounting claim, evidence supporting an expected payment, and cash already available. The framework combines an obligation calendar, an evidence-based receivable register, alternative receipt scenarios, and action triggers. Selected institutional publications provide contextual foundations, while operational definitions and propositions are developed analytically. No enterprise sample, statistical estimate, or universal payment probability is reported. A hypothetical example demonstrates how an unchanged receivable balance can coexist with a temporary cash gap when settlement moves beyond an obligation date. Three propositions address forecast accuracy, the lead time of cash-gap warnings, and the moderating role of customer concentration. The article proposes transaction-level measures, a prospective panel design, and controls against hindsight in forecast evaluation. Its contribution is a testable distinction between collection rights, expected receipts, and spendable cash. The framework requires validation across business cycles and attention to administrative cost, disputes, customer relationships, and data protection. It should be used as a managerial research proposal, rather than as an accounting impairment model or evidence of liquidity improvement.